The interview with Israeli analyst Shay Gal. The interview was given before the following events:
-the Trump-Erdogan meeting
-the flotilla resalto
-the developments with Gaza
Shay Gal is a senior strategic advisor and analyst specializing in international security, defense policy, geopolitical crisis management, and strategic communications. He served as Vice President of External Relations at Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), and previously held senior advisory roles for Israeli government ministers, focusing on crisis management, policy formulation, and strategic influence. Shay consults governments, senior military leaders, and global institutions on navigating complex geopolitical landscapes, shaping effective defense strategies, and fostering international strategic cooperation. His writing and analysis address international power dynamics, security challenges, economics, and leadership, offering practical insights and solutions to today’s global issues.
Question-Your recent article entitled “North Cyprus is also a problem for Israel”, in the newspaper Israel Hayom, in which you refer to a scenario of liberation of the Turkish-occupied northern Cyprus through the cooperation of Israel – Cyprus and Greece, caused positive reactions in Greece and tremendous concern in Turkey. Can Greece, Cyprus, and Israel liberate Cyprus? Tell us a few words about this article.
Answer-I wrote to expose what the international community has long known yet preferred to forget: the occupation of Northern Cyprus is not a frozen dispute but Turkey’s unsinkable aircraft carrier, a forward base for Bayraktar and Akinci drones from Lefkoniko, ATMACA missiles threatening shipping lanes and gas platforms, and SIGINT arrays along the Kyrenia ridge that turn Israel and Cyprus into a glasshouse. Casinos, universities and ports are no longer neutral infrastructure; they serve corruption, finance Hamas and enable Iranian networks to penetrate deep into Europe.
This is not only a threat to Israel or to Greece and Cyprus. It is an open wound inside NATO and the European Union, a direct challenge to Europe’s security and credibility.‘Poseidon’s Wrath’ is not a call for war but a message of capability and alliance, and it has already proved itself. Turkey trembled, its media erupted, and Ersin Tatar, the puppet president of the north, was forced onto live television to calm his public. A fifty page report by the National Intelligence Academy of MIT analyzed the scenario in detail. When a concept born in an Israeli article becomes required reading in Ankara’s intelligence community, deterrence has already moved from words to war rooms.But deterrence is meaningless without red lines.
Ours are clear: the deployment of additional missile systems in the north, armed UAV flights over international shipping lanes, or cyberattacks on civilian infrastructure will trigger a coordinated response. If those red lines are crossed, Poseidon’s Wrath ceases to be theory. It means neutralizing Turkish reinforcements from the mainland, eliminating air defense systems, destroying command and intelligence centers, and ultimately removing Turkish forces to restore Cypriot sovereignty under international law.The lesson from Iran is clear. What was deemed impossible was ultimately done.
As Turkey builds the Akkuyu nuclear plant with Russian support, it must understand that history repeats and the warning is unmistakable. Israel does not seek war, nor do Greece and Cyprus. We hope that Northern Cyprus will return peacefully to Cypriot sovereignty under international law. But if Ankara persists, other paths exist, and we are prepared.An occupation born in 1974 will not endure forever. Its days are numbered. If by peace, blessed. If not, then by steel. This is our message. This is our compass. This is Poseidon’s Wrath.
Question-Could strained relations between Israel and Turkey lead to an armed conflict?
Answer-When the President of Turkey prays for Allah to destroy Zionist Israel, this is no longer a mere statement. It is a declaration of intent. Ankara is building a nuclear reactor at Akkuyu, developing missiles and fighter aircraft, and continues to claim that this is a project for peace. Iran said the same in the past, and its actions exposed the truth. Here too, it is not words that will be judged but deeds.
The Nagel Committee already warned in January 2025 that Turkey is becoming a real threat, even more severe than the Iranian threat, because of its entrenchment in Syria, the deployment of advanced systems, and its exploitation of the shield provided by NATO membership.Turkey is also the open patron of Hamas, a terrorist organization that commits massacres, takes hostages, and fires rockets at Israeli cities. A state that hosts terrorists is not immune from Israeli military action.
This is a simple truth that Israel has demonstrated in the past and will demonstrate again if necessary.Equally important is the maritime domain. The Turkish-Libyan agreement is not merely a legal issue; it undermines freedom of navigation, threatens gas reserves, and endangers the economic stability of Israel, Greece, and Egypt. Imaginary maritime borders are nothing more than an attempt to erode the collective security of the region.Therefore the answer is clear. Israel does not seek war, but neither does it fear it. If Ankara chooses escalation, it will face the full strength of Israel
Question-Your last article about NATO’s Article 5 reveals some very interesting details. Could you explain why NATO cannot serve as Turkey’s shield in the event of an attack from Israel?
Answer– Article 5 of NATO is not a blank check. It has been invoked only once in history, after September 11, and even then only by consensus, with every ally deciding its own response. For Turkey there is no guarantee. Article 6 extends protection to territory, ships and aircraft, but the decision on what constitutes an armed attack is always political. And here Turkey fails. NATO defines Hamas as a terrorist threat, the European Union has imposed sanctions, while Ankara hosts Hamas leaders in Istanbul. A state that shelters terrorists cannot demand collective defense.
If Israel strikes Hamas infrastructure on Turkish soil, NATO will not fight to defend Hamas.The same is true in Northern Cyprus. ‘Poseidon’s Wrath’ is not designed for aggression but for restoring international law: dismantling missile and drone bases, destroying command centers and returning sovereignty to a member of the European Union. No European parliament will approve NATO intervention to protect an illegal occupation, and certainly not the Turkish-Libyan memorandum which the EU in 2019 and again in 2025 declared null and void.The law is clear. The Lisbon Treaty obliges EU members to combat terrorism and respect international law. Article 42(7), the Union’s own mutual defense clause, prevails over NATO when the two conflict. This means that when Lisbon and Ankara collide, Lisbon takes precedence.Nuclear power does not shield Turkey but exposes it. The Akkuyu reactor, built and owned by Russia, is not an asset but a liability.
If used for military purposes it will not trigger Article 5 but the opposite: sanctions and even a preventive strike, just as Israel carried out at Osirak in 1981, in Syria in 2007, and against Iran in 2025.NATO was built to defend democracies against external aggression, not to protect a member that undermines its values from within. The answer is therefore clear. Article 5 will not serve as Turkey’s shield against Israel, not when what is at stake is the defense of terrorism, an illegal occupation or a nuclear gamble
Question-Is Israel concerned about Trump-Erdogan relations? Will Israel block the sale of these fighter jets to Turkey?
Answer-Would the United States arm Erdogan with stealth fighters? This is not only an Israeli concern. It is Europe’s problem too, and there must be no mistake. Washington would never consider selling such aircraft to Iran or to Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. To place them in Erdogan’s hands would be no less reckless. Who will those jets be used against the day after delivery? Against Kurdish villages, where recent Turkish airstrikes killed entire families and children.
Or to once again violate Greek airspace, as Turkish jets and UAVs did this very month, testing Athens’s response and the fragile balance in the Aegean.Turkey was expelled from the F-35 program for purchasing Russia’s S-400 and undermining NATO security. Since then it has only deepened the threat: accelerating its nuclear project, testing long-range missiles, mass-producing indigenous combat aircraft, all while hosting Hamas leadership and maintaining its illegal occupation in Northern Cyprus. A state that copies American systems and sells them to adversaries, that threatens its neighbors and defies international law, cannot be trusted with the most advanced weapons in the world.
This is not strategy. It is appeasement. And history shows appeasement never restrains aggressors, it only emboldens them.So let me be clear. This is not only Israel’s call but a transatlantic imperative. Congress and the White House must close the door firmly on Ankara. These aircraft must not be delivered. If America arms Erdogan today, it will endanger Kurdish civilians, Greek and Cypriot sovereignty, Mediterranean stability, and ultimately the security of Europe itself. Whoever repeats the mistakes of the past will pay the price, and this time the price will be exacted in the heart of the Mediterranean
Question-We are watching how the flotilla going to Gaza is being supported by Turkey. In fact, there are reports of Turkish drones accompanying it. How will Israel handle the case? – What stage is the war in Gaza at? – What is your opinion on the US 21-point plan for ending the Gaza war announced recently?
Answer-Israel has both the right and the duty under international law to enforce a naval blockade on Hamas during an armed conflict. Such enforcement is lawful and effective, and may be carried out even in international waters when the objective is to prevent weapons smuggling and terrorist infiltration. Israel delivers dozens of humanitarian trucks into Gaza every day through controlled crossings, yet it is well known that much of this aid is seized or sold on the black market by Hamas. By contrast, flotillas are not humanitarian channels but provocations at best, and at worst attempts to transport weapons and fighters under the guise of ‘aid.’ We saw it with the Mavi Marmara, and again in June 2025 when the ship carrying Greta Thunberg was intercepted at sea and brought to Ashdod by the Navy. The same will happen now. The ships will be stopped lawfully, inspected, and diverted to an Israeli port. Turkish drones or frigates waving flags do not alter the simple fact: Israel’s right to self-defense is absolute, and the law is on our side.
As for the war in Gaza itself, this is not a stage for a ceasefire at any price. Hamas has been struck but not yet disarmed, and close to fifty hostages remain in captivity in Gaza, with around twenty believed to be alive. This is the heart of the matter: the war cannot end before the hostages are returned and the military threat is removed. Israel continues with targeted raids, the elimination of cells, and strikes on the remaining infrastructure to dismantle what is left of Hamas’s power.Regarding the United States 21-point plan, Israel is fully aware of it.
Today Prime Minister Netanyahu will meet President Trump at the White House to discuss it. The plan combines an exchange of hostages for a ceasefire, phased withdrawal, an international stabilization force, and a new governing mechanism in Gaza that is not Hamas, as well as a conditional political horizon. Any proposal that ensures three principles — the return of the hostages, the disarmament of Hamas, and full freedom of action for Israel’s security — is positive and worthy of serious discussion.
Anything that does not guarantee those three will not be accepted.The conclusion is clear. Israel will enforce the blockade lawfully, block provocations at sea, continue pressing Hamas until the hostages are returned and its power dismantled, and work with Washington and our partners on any plan that secures both humanitarian and security needs. This is Israel’s path – resolve with responsibility, strength with law.
Question-Is the Iran issue over, or will there be further developments?
Answer-The Iranian issue is not over. On June 13, 2025 Israel struck nuclear facilities, missile sites and energy infrastructure; the United States joined on June 22, and Iran responded with missiles and drones. Since then Tehran has expanded underground sites such as Pickaxe Mountain near Natanz, seeking a buried nuclear capability, while the UN and Europe have reinstated snapback sanctions. Iran continues to advance in every domain, nuclear, missile, cyber and proxies from Lebanon to Yemen, and may disguise its program as civilian. The Twelve Day War proved that when required Israel acts, within days or even hours. As long as Iran pursues nuclear weapons and long range missiles, Israeli jets will return to its skies. And let Ankara take note: support for nuclear adventurism, missile proliferation and terror proxies will bring consequences. Israel will act with vigilance and determination. Doubt our resolve and you will see not words but deeds.
Question- Recently you wrote an analysis on how Ankara mass-produces ‘news,’ where even tiny errors are copy-pasted untouched. You also revealed a Turkish campaign against you. Can you share with us what happened?
Answer-The point is not one error or one article. It is a system. Ankara has created a mechanism where ready-made texts – what communication scholars call an information subsidy – are pushed from the top and flow down to dozens of outlets unchanged. The result is not journalism but churnalism: automatic replication, errors included. I know because I saw the same slip repeated word for word in OdaTV, Haber7, Diriliş Postası and Kıbrıs Türk.
That is not coincidence but the fingerprint of a single origin.Since July 2025 the Presidency’s Directorate of Communications has been headed by Burhanettin Duran. This body does not only brief, it produces content packages for distribution. Once they pass through agencies such as Anadolu, DHA or IHA, editors dare not change a comma, because RTÜK can impose massive fines, BIK can cut off state advertising, and the 2022 disinformation law makes critical reporting a criminal offense. This is how message discipline replaces editorial judgment.
The numbers make sense in this context. Reporters Without Borders ranked Turkey 159 out of 180 in its 2025 Press Freedom Index. This is not an abstract statistic but the outcome of concentrated ownership – Demirören controls Hürriyet and CNN Türk, Kalyon controls Sabah and A Haber – combined with regulatory and financial levers that reduce a press corps to a single chorus. Anyone who deviates pays an economic or legal price.“For me the meaning is simple: Ankara chose not to deny what I wrote, because there is no way to disprove facts. Instead it wrapped them in framing that suited its own purposes. But in the end, the system revealed itself through the mistake: the identical line that appeared everywhere, the mark of a machine. And when an entire media system cannot correct the simplest error, it proves it is not free. It is only a conduit. And that leads to the real question: if they cannot even copy the name of a newspaper correctly, why should anyone trust the rest of their so-called facts?
Question-How will Greece, Cyprus, India, and Israel deal with the axis of evil, meaning the alliance between Turkey, Qatar, and Pakistan?
Answer-The axis of Turkey, Qatar and Pakistan is not solidarity but a mechanism of dependency, instability and exploitation. Against it stands a coalition of democracies: Greece, Cyprus, Israel and India – four states linking three continents and offering an entirely different order.India’s uniqueness is clear. It is a member of BRICS, yet unlike Turkey it does not surrender its sovereignty to an anti-Western bloc. It builds strategic autonomy with open doors, balancing Washington and Brussels while keeping channels to Moscow and Beijing, investing in Haifa, advancing the IMEC corridor and deepening partnerships in the Gulf. This is not dependence but sovereignty.Turkey, by contrast, claims to speak for the oppressed while in reality it turns Cyprus into a base, channels IRGC funds to the Houthis, entrenches itself in Suakin and Mogadishu, and markets its Middle Corridor not as a bridge but as an instrument of control.
In South Asia it aligns with China and Pakistan: CPEC from the northeast, the Middle Corridor from the northwest, both converging on Islamabad. For India this is a triple squeeze: Chinese pressure from the east, Turkish and Pakistani leverage from the west, and dual drone supply lines aimed at Kashmir and the Indian Ocean.Our coalition responds on three levels. Corridors – not of coercion but of sovereignty, with IMEC as a transparent and rules-based alternative to BRI and Turkey’s corridor. Security – integrating intelligence, maritime, cyber and unmanned systems to neutralize Turkish and Chinese supply chains in Pakistan.
Economy and diplomacy – a Mediterranean partnership with India as a natural gateway to Europe, Cyprus as an anchoring hub, Greece as a NATO pillar and Israel as a technological and security power.This coalition is not a reaction to an axis of evil but the proposal of a new order: a coalition of democracies connecting the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean, understanding that the Indian Ocean begins here, in the Eastern Mediterranean. It is not a coalition of dependency but of sovereignty, not of coercion but of stability. It already exists – and it will endure.
Question-I would like to ask you one last question slightly outside the main context. Recently, Benjamin Netanyahu in an interview recognized the genocide of the Greeks, Armenians and Assyrians, by Turkey, what does this mean for Greece and Israel?
Answer-Well, when, Prime Minister Netanyahu recognized the genocide, preparedby the Turks against Armenian Pontic Greeks, and Assyrians, he placed Israel beside nation crushed under the Ottoman. The Ottoman sword Turkey rage only underscored the acts weightsf rom his first days as the UN, ambassador in the UN, actually in the 80s, in the late 80s.
Warning against denial toto today as Prime Minister who recognize, the circle is closed.It’s not rhetoric, believe me, but the foundation of policy.But this must be a, cornerst one of foreign policy.
Both for Jerusalem and Athens of nation destroyed, yet survive.The duty is clear to lead global recognition of historic genocidea nd control and confront denial in all of its form.This policy is not only moral memory, but the credibility of international law itself. By, trivialization crime written in blood. Leaders like Erdogan weakened law and norms meant to prevent, atrocities. Actually, by doing this, we do not guard memory to honour the dead. But we got it to shame the living who would dare to repeat their crimes.
